Climate Resilience of the Canadian Real Estate Market

Published On: February 18, 2025
Categories: Industry Research, Viewpoint Research & Guides

As extreme temperatures become more frequent and natural disasters dominate headlines, Canadians are experiencing the impacts of climate change firsthand. That’s why Equiton partnered with the John Molson School of Business at Concordia University to examine how climate change affects Canadian real estate through the lenses of physical risk and migration patterns. This report explores how climate events are reshaping the country’s population growth, shifting regional real estate markets, and redefining risks and rewards for investors.

Included in this research:

Analysis of decades of temperature and climate event data

Regional insights into climate resilience across Canada and the U.S.

Guidance for real estate investors on mitigating climate risks and capitalizing on Canada’s climate and migration advantages

Highlights from Climate Resilience of the Canadian Real Estate Market:

The ‘North Effect’: Higher temperatures have had a moderating effect on cooler Canadian regions, potentially making them more attractive for climate migrants and investors alike.

Climate immigration: A 1% increase in the climate exposure of an immigrant’s home country increases immigration to Canada by around 0.5% across all immigration categories, playing a role in sustaining housing demand and supporting property values.

Physical risk: As many Canadians have experienced, Canada is not immune to the effects of climate change. However, the number of Canadian postal codes affected by wildfires since 2019 is growing at a significantly slower pace compared to rising threats in U.S. locales.

Regional insights: Data maps of temperature trends and abnormal heat days provide actionable insights into geographic diversification and mitigating climate risks for long-term investors.

Guidance: To preserve its climate advantage globally, Canada can direct policy and investment toward disaster-resistant infrastructure and long-term climate resilience initiatives.

Author:

Dr. Erkan Yönder, Associate Professor of Real Estate and Finance, John Molson School of Business at Concordia University

Dr. Erkan Yönder is an Associate Professor of Real Estate Finance and serves as the Chair of the Finance Department at John Molson School of Business, Concordia University. With a primary focus on real estate finance, Erkan’s expertise lies in commercial real estate and sustainable real estate. Erkan’s research has found its way into esteemed academic journals and have secured multiple grants from renowned institutions such as the National Pension Hub (NPH) and the European Public Real Estate Association (EPRA). Notably, his research earned him the Nick Tyrrell Real Estate Research Prize in the UK and the distinguished Best Published Article Award from Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI), a United Nations-supported initiative. Erkan has had the privilege of presenting his scholarly work at some of the world’s leading universities, including MIT, Yale University, the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), and Cornell University. Erkan received his PhD degree in Finance and Real Estate at Maastricht University.

This project was commissioned by the Equiton Research Fund in Real Estate at the John Molson School of Business. Equiton values and upholds the principle of academic independence in all its research partnerships.

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Climate Resilience of the Canadian Real Estate Market

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